For 2020-21, total oat supply in Canada increased by 8% to 5.0 Mt, the third highest level on record, due to improved production and higher carry-in stocks.

STC reported that total exports of oats for the August-December 2020 period increased by 25% compared to the same period a year ago, including a 26% rise in oat grain exports and a 21% rise in oat product exports. For the entire crop year, total exports are expected to be 2.8 Mt, 7% higher than last year and the second highest level on record.

Total domestic use increased by 10% for the August-December 2020 period, largely due to a 15% rise in the volume of animal feed, waste and dockage, in spite of a drop in food use. For the entire crop year, total domestic use is expected to increase by 7%, driven by strong feed use.

Carry-out stocks for the entire crop year are expected to be in the tight range, due to robust exports and solid domestic feed use, despite a good supply.

For the crop year to date, the average cash oat prices in the Prairie provinces have increased by 1%, 6% and 1% for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, respectively, and the upward trends are expected to continue for the rest of the crop year. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oat futures price for 2020-21 is expected to rise slightly from last year to $275/t, the second highest level on record, supported by solid demand in North America and strong prices for other crops, despite abundant supplies in North America and major exporting countries around the world.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to decrease by 3%, approaching 1.5 Mha, due to strong acreage competition from other crops, despite good oat prices and tight stocks. Production is forecast to decrease by 7% to 4.2 Mt due to lower harvested area and yield as predicted using the previous five-year averages. Supply is forecast to drop by 5% to 4.8 Mt, largely due to lower production more than offsetting the rise in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is anticipated to fall on lower feed use. Exports are expected to fade due to expectations for an increase in global supplies and an appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to reduced total use, despite lower supply.

The average price of oats for 2021-2022 is forecast to decrease on anticipated weaker demand.