For 2020-21, supplies are estimated up 17%, to 0.66 Mt, versus 0.57 Mt last year, as the result of higher production and marginally higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by about 55%, to 0.54 Mt due to the combination of strong European buying, as the EU’s traditional supplier, Kazakhstan switches to supplying China instead. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 54%, to 71,700 t, on sharply lower feed waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 21% to 0.05 Mt while flaxseed prices rally sharply to $680/t, versus $518/t in 2019-20 and the 5 year average of $477/t.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to flaxseed in Canada is forecast to rise by 22% to a six-year high of 0.46 Mha, on support from the 31% rally in prices in 2020-21. The shift into flaxseed area is expected to be limited by agronomic factors, such as low spring soil moisture, and by competition for crop area from alternate crops, such as lentils. Flaxseed production is forecast at 0.68 Mt, assuming an area loss of 2% prior to harvest and five year average yields of 1.5 t/ha. Total supply is forecast to increase by 11%, to 0.74 Mt, as the decline in carry-in moderates the forecasted rise in output.